A retiring longtime Democrat in McAllen has opened up one of the most interesting legislative races in Texas. Progressive Democrat Julio Salinas, 26, is taking on Republican Gary Groves, a conservative leader who once flipped a county precinct from blue to red. The outcome could tell us whether Latino voters in South Texas are swinging back left or sticking with Republicans after the Valley went largely for Trump in 2024.

Immigration enforcement sits at the center of the contest. A political science professor at UT Rio Grande Valley says ICE tactics have broken trust with the region’s swing voters. At the same time, Democratic primary turnout in the Valley doubled compared to March 2024, though it still lags well below the state average. Two other South Texas races are also targeting Republican incumbents in the Texas House.

Why should that matter here in Waxahachie? If the Rio Grande Valley ever votes at the same rate as the Dallas and Houston suburbs, one analyst says it becomes the tail that wags the dog of Texas politics. That’s a statewide shift with local consequences.

What do you think: is the Valley swinging back blue, or was 2024 the new normal?