House Speaker Mike Johnson was in South Texas on Tuesday, campaigning for Republican attorney Eric Flores in his bid to unseat Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’ 34th District. The race is one of a handful nationwide that could determine which party controls the U.S. House, and both sides are treating it like a priority.

The district’s boundaries changed this cycle. Republicans shifted it away from part of Hidalgo County along the border and toward more Republican-leaning territory around Nueces County, where Trump would have won by roughly 10 points in 2024. Even so, Gonzalez, a moderate who has served since 2017, narrowly won reelection that same year. He’s campaigning on his Corpus Christi ties and his record on infrastructure, healthcare and border security, arguing he stayed ahead of the border issue while his party struggled with it.

The wild card is whether Republican gains with Hispanic voters hold. The district remains Hispanic-majority, and a political science professor at Del Mar College says Trump’s support in that community may be eroding. If that’s true, the redrawn map may not deliver the way Republicans expect.

What’s your read: does a redrawn map decide a race like this, or do local roots still win out? Let us know in the comments.