President Trump spent the final week of the midterm campaign rallying in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, and Texas Republicans are counting on him to drive turnout in a state he won by about 14 points in 2024. The pitch is straightforward: Trump energizes the base. The complication is his approval rating, which SMU political science professor Cal Jillson estimates near 35 percent heading into Election Day.

In the marquee Senate race, Republican Ken Paxton has tied himself closely to Trump and Elon Musk as he trails Democrat James Talarico in both polls and fundraising. Republicans privately acknowledge Paxton can’t close the gap alone. Meanwhile, Hispanic-majority House districts in South Texas are seeing Latino voters shift back toward Democrats, with grocery costs, the Iran War and immigration enforcement driving the conversation.

Closer to home, Waxahachie and the rest of Ellis County have watched explosive DFW growth rewrite the local electorate, and turnout has become the deciding factor in race after race. With control of Congress on the line, who shows up next Tuesday could set the tone for national politics through the next cycle. How do you see the final week playing out? Let us know in the comments.